Sim Says
NFL Power Rankings
All 32 teams ranked by our rest-of-season projected wins. We simulate the season 10,000 times off our team ratings, blended with the market win totals, then grade the results in public. A model-based ranking, not a columnist's gut, refreshed daily. Updated Jul 14, 2026.
| # | Team | Proj W | Playoffs | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
LA
|
11 (8-14) | 75% | 11% |
| 2 |
BUF
|
10 (7-13) | 72% | 8% |
| 3 |
DET
|
10 (7-13) | 62% | 5% |
| 4 |
SEA
|
10 (7-13) | 63% | 7% |
| 5 |
BAL
|
10 (7-13) | 67% | 5% |
| 6 |
HOU
|
10 (7-13) | 67% | 6% |
| 7 |
DEN
|
10 (7-13) | 65% | 5% |
| 8 |
NE
|
10 (7-13) | 66% | 6% |
| 9 |
PHI
|
10 (6-13) | 60% | 5% |
| 10 |
SF
|
10 (6-13) | 58% | 5% |
| 11 |
CIN
|
9 (6-13) | 56% | 3% |
| 12 |
JAX
|
9 (6-13) | 56% | 4% |
| 13 |
LAC
|
9 (6-12) | 54% | 4% |
| 14 |
GB
|
9 (6-12) | 47% | 3% |
| 15 |
MIN
|
9 (6-12) | 47% | 3% |
| 16 |
KC
|
9 (6-12) | 52% | 3% |
| 17 |
CHI
|
9 (6-12) | 46% | 3% |
| 18 |
DAL
|
9 (5-12) | 44% | 2% |
| 19 |
PIT
|
8 (5-12) | 40% | 2% |
| 20 |
TB
|
8 (5-12) | 40% | 2% |
| 21 |
NO
|
8 (5-11) | 36% | 1% |
| 22 |
WAS
|
8 (5-11) | 33% | 1% |
| 23 |
ATL
|
8 (4-11) | 35% | 1% |
| 24 |
IND
|
8 (4-11) | 33% | 1% |
| 25 |
NYG
|
7 (4-11) | 23% | 1% |
| 26 |
CAR
|
7 (4-11) | 26% | 1% |
| 27 |
CLE
|
7 (3-10) | 19% | 0% |
| 28 |
LV
|
6 (3-10) | 15% | 0% |
| 29 |
TEN
|
6 (3-10) | 15% | 0% |
| 30 |
MIA
|
6 (3-9) | 13% | 0% |
| 31 |
NYJ
|
6 (3-9) | 10% | 0% |
| 32 |
ARI
|
5 (2-8) | 5% | 0% |
Proj W = mean projected wins (10th to 90th percentile in parentheses). Net = opponent-adjusted points per play above average. Off / Def = offensive and defensive EPA per play, where a lower (more negative) defensive number is better. Ratings blend our ELO and EPA models; the projection anchors them to the market win totals.
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