Sim Says
Houston Texans
AFC South · Projected 10.0 wins (7–13 range) · updated Jul 14
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
67%
Win division
46%
#1 seed / bye
13%
Reach Super Bowl
12%
Win Super Bowl
6%
Proj wins
10.0
Proj points for
406
Market win total
9.5
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
+0.118
Elo
1658
Off EPA/play
-0.022
Def EPA/play
-0.140
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs
 BUF
|
49% |
| 2 | vs
 CIN
|
58% |
| 3 | @
 IND
|
62% |
| 4 | vs
 DAL
|
58% |
| 5 | @
 TEN
|
62% |
| 6 | @
 JAX
|
59% |
| 7 | vs
 NYG
proj |
71% |
| 9 | @
 LAC
proj |
48% |
| 10 | @
 CLE
proj |
68% |
| 11 | vs
IND
proj |
69% |
| 12 | vs
 BAL
proj |
56% |
| 13 | @
 PIT
proj |
56% |
| 14 | @
 WAS
proj |
57% |
| 15 | vs
JAX
proj |
59% |
| 16 | @
 PHI
proj |
47% |
| 17 | @
 GB
proj |
49% |
| 18 | vs
TEN
proj |
77% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.