The World Cup Knockout Round Has Begun
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Day Fifteen: Group E Holds Its Breath While Group D Yawns
The World Cup keeps rolling on...
The Final Round of the Group Stage: Where it Matters
Not every game matters from here on out. We explore that today.
Day Thirteen: Games That Matter, and the Ones That Won't
This is the last day. A majority of the group stage matters. From tomorrow onwards, predicting will be hard.
Day Twelve - The Heavyweights!
France and Argentina both playing today with Norway and Senegal, looking to settle out the group
World Cup: Confirmed Sharper Than The Market
On day 11, we started tracking sharpness metrics, and we are sharper than the overall market.
About Half Way Through The Groups - The World Cup Model is Running Well
We're about halfway through. The USA are through to the next round. Turkey, a surprise, has fallen out. Lots of great games today.
World Cup Day 9: We've Made Some Changes to the Model
We made some changes to the model to match reality. The four games today have some surprising modeled outcomes.
The Second Round of the World Cup Group Stages Starts Today!
Our model predicts all four games, and we ask Claude to do the same. Can we be AI?
The Final Games of the First Round -- World Cup Model
England, Croatia, and Portugal all take to the field today. Along with Colombia in the late night game, this rounds out the first round of the World Cup.
Our Two Favorites, Argentina & France, Take the Field Today
Probably the biggest day of the World Cup so far, with Argentina and France playing. Our model thinks they'll both take an easy win
The Train Keeps Rolling: World Cup Day Five!
The model is performing really well. Today we'll take a deeper look at it.
82% ROI on the World Cup Heading Into Day Four!
Day Four at the World Cup: a 27-point gap on Ivory Coast vs Ecuador, the new rule behind our 8-1 run, and why a longshot just paid for our worst day.
We're 10-1-1 on the World Cup So Far - Here's Saturday's Lineup
Two days down, and the early returns are honestly a little silly. Our forecasts have gone ten and two, and the value bets are up about 83 percent. I built this thing to be graded in public, and so ...
World Cup 2026 Updating Model
We post the pics almost every day, but this is where you can see the model as it updates somewhat “live.” Photo by Fauzan Saari on UnsplashWe’ll try and update the model on a daily basis after the ...
Day Two of the World Cup, Picked
After a perfect opening day, here is what the model likes for Canada vs Bosnia and USA vs Paraguay.
World Cup Day One: Mexico, Korea, and Where We Disagree With the Bookies
The model likes Mexico more than the market does and thinks South Africa gets shut out. Here's every pick, with the numbers.
Building a World Cup Model (And Whether It's Any Good)
I’ve spent the last few weeks building a model to predict the World Cup. Not a “who do you reckon wins it” gut take over a beer. An actual machine that takes every international team, every result ...