Model Accuracy
Live results as of July 1, 2026 — graded automatically as games & fights resolve.
Every Predicted Sports pick is graded against the real result and published — no edits, no cherry-picking. Here's the full public scoreboard for each sport's models and our AI analyst cast.
MLB
109 graded games · 2026Base
Game
56.0%
61/109 · winner
Total
40.6%
39/96 · over / under
First 5
55.8%
48/86 · F5 winner
First inning
58.7%
64/109 · YRFI / NRFI
Total runs — average error ±3.45 per game.
Run model — transparent environment decomposition
Game winner
50.5%
55/109
Total runs error
±3.38
vs final total
Per-side runs error
±2.35
each team vs actual
Our cast
Vega (numbers) & Scoop (news + web) call every game ~3h out. Records over resolved games.
Vega · 61 picks
Pick (winner)
50.0%
28/56
Over / Under
69.8%
37/53
Scoop · 60 picks
Pick (winner)
56.4%
31/55
Over / Under
48.1%
25/52
UFC
52 graded fightsBacktest · 3055 historical fights
0.662
log loss
0.235
Brier
leak-free
time-split, calibrated
Base
Picks (winner)
84.6%
11/13
Round
100.0%
12/12 finishes
Method
100.0%
14/14
Picks by type
33%
+EV bets
2/6
100%
High conf.
3/3
85%
All picks
11/13
Closing-line value: beat the close 17% of the time (avg -2.0pp) over 6 tracked picks.
Our cast
Vega & Scoop call every fight twice — ~1 week out and fight week. Records over resolved fights.
Vega · 13 calls
| When | Pick | Method |
|---|---|---|
| ~1 week out | — | — |
| Fight week | 69% 9/13 | 46% 6/13 |
Scoop · 13 calls
| When | Pick | Method |
|---|---|---|
| ~1 week out | — | — |
| Fight week | 92% 12/13 | 54% 7/13 |