predicted sports
Most likely champion
🇦🇷
Argentina
26%
baseline forecast
10,000 simulated tournaments
Top contenders
🇦🇷
Argentina
26%
🇧🇷
Brazil
15%
🇪🇸
Spain
13%
🇫🇷
France
12%
🇧🇪
Belgium
5%
🇨🇴
Colombia
4%
Today's Games · The Panel

Four forecasters, four ways of seeing the game. Each calls who advances, the total goals and both-teams-to-score, with the reasoning behind it.

🇧🇷Brazil v Japan🇯🇵
🎯 The Sharp Brazil advance 66%
Over 2.5 56%
BTTS Yes 52%

“Brazil stronger outfit, but not a blowout—Japan hang around often.”

🔒 Read the full reasoning — Pro
📊 The Analyst Brazil advance 68%
Over 2.5 55%
BTTS No 52%

“Brazil's 2.48 attack vs Japan's 0.45 defense gap is real; xG dominance (7.2 total) confirms quality edge. Japan's 1.86 attack won't crack Brazil's 0.43 defense often.”

🔒 Read the full reasoning — Pro
The Diehard Fan Brazil advance 75%
Over 2.5 58%
BTTS No 52%

“Brazil smell blood — Japan have no answer to that Selecao fire on the big stage!”

🔒 Read the full reasoning — Pro
🔍 The Scout Brazil advance 80%
Over 2.5 60%
BTTS No 55%

“Word is Japan's stretched thin. They're missing key man Takefusa Kubo and defender Ko Itakura is a big doubt. Brazil's Vini Jr. will run riot.”

🔒 Read the full reasoning — Pro
🇩🇪Germany v Paraguay🇵🇾
🎯 The Sharp Germany advance 78%
Over 2.5 58%
BTTS No 55%

“Mismatch—Paraguay lifeless. Germany shaky but too much firepower.”

🔒 Read the full reasoning — Pro
📊 The Analyst Germany advance 75%
Over 2.5 52%
BTTS No 55%

“Germany's 2.19 attack dwarfs Paraguay's 1.26; Paraguay's 0.66 defense is leaky. Germany's 4.2 xG vs Curaçao shows explosiveness Paraguay can't match.”

🔒 Read the full reasoning — Pro
The Diehard Fan Germany advance 72%
Over 2.5 62%
BTTS No 55%

“Germany’s engine room will grind Paraguay down — no room for heroics here!”

🔒 Read the full reasoning — Pro
🔍 The Scout Germany advance 75%
Over 2.5 55%
BTTS Yes 50%

“Paraguay are in trouble. Midfielder Diego Gomez is suspended and I'm hearing defender Omar Alderete is also out. Germany's attack will feast.”

🔒 Read the full reasoning — Pro
🇳🇱Netherlands v Morocco🇲🇦
🎯 The Sharp Morocco advance 52%
Over 2.5 55%
BTTS Yes 54%

“Coin flip dressed as Dutch superiority; Morocco’s edge in balance.”

🔒 Read the full reasoning — Pro
📊 The Analyst Netherlands advance 62%
Under 2.5 52%
BTTS Yes 52%

“Netherlands' 2.04 attack vs Morocco's 0.28 defense is a clash, but Morocco's 1.46 attack is weak. Netherlands' 2.5 xG vs Sweden signals higher ceiling.”

🔒 Read the full reasoning — Pro
The Diehard Fan Netherlands advance 62%
Over 2.5 55%
BTTS Yes 52%

“Oranje have the legs and the nerve — Morocco will feel the weight of the moment!”

🔒 Read the full reasoning — Pro
🔍 The Scout Morocco advance 52%
Under 2.5 55%
BTTS Yes 55%

“Upset watch. The Dutch are healthy, but Morocco are bringing key players like Ounahi back in fresh. Striker Ismael Saibari is on fire.”

🔒 Read the full reasoning — Pro

The Panel: The Sharp (pro bettor) · The Analyst (xG) · The Diehard Fan (soccer instinct) · The Scout (team news, searches the web). Picks are tracked against the market.

Model's predicted bracket

A chalk projection: the stronger side advances every tie, all the way to 🇦🇷 Argentina.

Round of 32
Round of 16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
Champion
🇿🇦 S. Africa
🇨🇦 Canada
🇳🇱 Netherlands
🇲🇦 Morocco
🇩🇪 Germany
🇵🇾 Paraguay
🇫🇷 France
🇸🇪 Sweden
🇵🇹 Portugal
🇭🇷 Croatia
🇪🇸 Spain
🇦🇹 Austria
🇺🇸 USA
🇧🇦 Bosnia
🇧🇪 Belgium
🇩🇿 Algeria
🇧🇷 Brazil
🇯🇵 Japan
🇨🇮 Ivory Coast
🇳🇴 Norway
🇲🇽 Mexico
🇸🇳 Senegal
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England
🇨🇩 DR Congo
🇦🇷 Argentina
🇨🇻 Cape Verde
🇦🇺 Australia
🇪🇬 Egypt
🇨🇭 Switzerland
🇪🇨 Ecuador
🇨🇴 Colombia
🇬🇭 Ghana
🇨🇦 Canada
🇲🇦 Morocco
🇵🇾 Paraguay
🇫🇷 France
🇵🇹 Portugal
🇪🇸 Spain
🇺🇸 USA
🇩🇿 Algeria
🇧🇷 Brazil
🇳🇴 Norway
🇲🇽 Mexico
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England
🇦🇷 Argentina
🇪🇬 Egypt
🇨🇭 Switzerland
🇨🇴 Colombia
🇲🇦 Morocco
🇫🇷 France
🇪🇸 Spain
🇺🇸 USA
🇳🇴 Norway
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England
🇦🇷 Argentina
🇨🇴 Colombia
🇫🇷 France
🇪🇸 Spain
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England
🇦🇷 Argentina
🇫🇷 France
🇦🇷 Argentina
🏆
🇦🇷
Argentina
model's pick

29 teams still in it — tournament progression

# Team Grp Win R16
1 🇦🇷Argentina J 26.2% 92%
2 🇧🇷Brazil C 15.1% 100%
3 🇪🇸Spain H 12.7% 69%
4 🇫🇷France I 11.6% 69%
5 🇧🇪Belgium G 5.5% 67%
6 🇨🇴Colombia K 4.3% 82%
7 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿England L 4.0% 67%
8 🇲🇦Morocco C 4.0% 51%
9 🇳🇱Netherlands F 3.7% 49%
10 🇳🇴Norway I 1.9% 63%
11 🇵🇹Portugal K 1.8% 65%
12 🇦🇹Austria J 1.6% 31%
13 🇨🇦Canada B 1.5% 100%
14 🇸🇪Sweden F 1.2% 31%
15 🇨🇭Switzerland B 1.0% 59%
16 🇲🇽Mexico A 0.8% 50%
17 🇸🇳Senegal I 0.8% 50%
18 🇩🇿Algeria J 0.6% 33%
19 🇺🇸United States D 0.5% 80%
20 🇨🇮Ivory Coast E 0.4% 37%
21 🇪🇨Ecuador E 0.3% 41%
22 🇨🇩DR Congo K 0.3% 33%
23 🇭🇷Croatia L 0.2% 35%
24 🇦🇺Australia D 0.1% 49%
25 🇪🇬Egypt G 0.1% 51%
26 🇨🇻Cape Verde H 0.0% 8%
27 🇬🇭Ghana L 0.0% 18%
28 🇵🇾Paraguay D 0.0% 100%
29 🇧🇦Bosnia and Herzegovina B 0.0% 20%
V2: Dixon-Coles + Bipartite Glicko-2 + Club ELO · Squad depth decay · FIFA bracket · Updated Jun 30, 2026