Sim Says
Super Bowl Odds 2026
Who wins it all? We simulate the full season 10,000 times off our team ratings, blended with the market win totals, and count how often each team lifts the Lombardi. Our model's projections, graded in public, not betting odds. Updated Jul 14, 2026.
Projected Super Bowl 2026 champion
Los Angeles Rams11% to win it all across 10,000 simulations
Projected conference favorites
AFC favorite
Buffalo Bills
15% to reach SB
NFC favorite
Los Angeles Rams
19% to reach SB
Full Super Bowl 2026 odds
| # | Team | Conf | Reach SB | Win SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LA |
NFC | 19% | 11% |
| 2 | BUF |
AFC | 15% | 8% |
| 3 |  SEA |
NFC | 12% | 7% |
| 4 |  HOU |
AFC | 12% | 6% |
| 5 |  NE |
AFC | 12% | 6% |
| 6 |  BAL |
AFC | 11% | 5% |
| 7 |  DET |
NFC | 10% | 5% |
| 8 |  DEN |
AFC | 11% | 5% |
| 9 |  SF |
NFC | 10% | 5% |
| 10 |  PHI |
NFC | 10% | 5% |
| 11 |  JAX |
AFC | 8% | 4% |
| 12 |  LAC |
AFC | 8% | 4% |
| 13 |  GB |
NFC | 7% | 3% |
| 14 |  CHI |
NFC | 7% | 3% |
| 15 |  KC |
AFC | 7% | 3% |
| 16 |  MIN |
NFC | 6% | 3% |
| 17 |  CIN |
AFC | 6% | 3% |
| 18 |  DAL |
NFC | 5% | 2% |
| 19 |  PIT |
AFC | 4% | 2% |
| 20 |  TB |
NFC | 3% | 2% |
| 21 |  WAS |
NFC | 3% | 1% |
| 22 |  ATL |
NFC | 3% | 1% |
| 23 |  IND |
AFC | 3% | 1% |
| 24 |  NO |
NFC | 2% | 1% |
| 25 |  CAR |
NFC | 2% | 1% |
| 26 |  NYG |
NFC | 2% | 1% |
| 27 |  CLE |
AFC | 1% | 0% |
| 28 |  MIA |
AFC | 1% | 0% |
| 29 |  LV |
AFC | 1% | 0% |
| 30 |  TEN |
AFC | 1% | 0% |
| 31 |  NYJ |
AFC | 0% | 0% |
| 32 |  ARI |
NFC | 0% | 0% |
Win SB = the share of all 10,000 simulations each team wins the title. See the projected bracket and path on the NFL playoff odds page, our power rankings, and free survivor picks.