NFL ยท By the Numbers
The answers, from every game since 2016
The NFL is a sport of confident claims: home field wins games, favorites are safe, rest off a bye is an edge. We run a database of 2,629 regular-season games, so instead of guessing, we counted. A few of these cut hard against the conventional wisdom.
55%
home teams win
Does home field advantage matter in the NFL?
The home team wins, but by less than the reputation suggests.
49%
favorites cover
Do NFL favorites cover the spread?
Under half. The spread is efficient, and chalk does not print.
67%
favorites win
How often do NFL favorites win straight up?
About two in three. Winning and covering are very different things.
49%
games go over
How often do NFL games go over the total?
Almost exactly half. The total is a sharp, efficient line.
+1.6
pts, indoor edge
Do NFL teams score more in domes?
Yes, and the indoor scoring bump is real and clean.
-1.2
pts in div games
Are NFL division games lower scoring?
Yes, familiar opponents play tighter. The gap is real.
50%
win with more rest
Does extra rest matter in the NFL?
Barely. The rest-advantage narrative is mostly noise.
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