NFL Survivor
Survivor Pool Picks — Week 1
Every Week 1 game ranked by our model's win probability, safest first. The favorites below are the raw survivor plays. To pick the right one you also have to plan the rest of your season, so use the optimizer once you know which teams you've already burned. Model as of Jul 15, 2026.
Top pick · Week 1
LACLos Angeles Chargers vs ARI
88%
to win
Every Week 1 pick, ranked by win probability
| # | Pick | Matchup | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LAC
|
vs ARI | 88% |
| 2 |  JAX
|
vs CLE | 80% |
| 3 |  DET
|
vs NO | 75% |
| 4 |  DAL
|
@ NYG | 64% |
| 5 |  BAL
|
@ IND | 62% |
| 6 |  LA
|
vs SF | 58% |
| 7 |  CIN
|
vs TB | 58% |
| 8 |  PIT
|
vs ATL | 58% |
| 9 |  TEN
|
vs NYJ | 58% |
| 10 |  LV
|
vs MIA | 58% |
| 11 |  PHI
|
vs WAS | 58% |
| 12 |  KC
|
vs DEN | 58% |
| 13 |  SEA
|
vs NE | 58% |
| 14 |  CHI
|
@ CAR | 51% |
| 15 |  BUF
|
@ HOU | 51% |
| 16 |  GB
|
@ MIN | 51% |
Don't just pick the biggest favorite.
Picking the safest team every week gets you eliminated the moment you need them later. Our optimizer plans your whole season at once, tells you which team to spend now, and shows the forward path around the teams you've already used.
Open the survivor optimizer →Picks tagged "proj" use our simulated team strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. See also the NFL playoff & Super Bowl odds.