NFL Survivor
Survivor Pool Picks โ Week 4
Every Week 4 game ranked by our model's win probability, safest first. The favorites below are the raw survivor plays. To pick the right one you also have to plan the rest of your season, so use the optimizer once you know which teams you've already burned. Model as of Aug 12, 2026.
Top pick ยท Week 4
CHIChicago Bears vs NYJ
76%
to win
Every Week 4 pick, ranked by win probability
| # | Pick | Matchup | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CHI
|
vs NYJ | 76% |
| 2 |  BAL
proj |
vs TEN | 75% |
| 3 |  MIN
proj |
vs MIA | 71% |
| 4 |  NYG
proj |
vs ARI | 67% |
| 5 |  SEA
proj |
vs LAC | 65% |
| 6 |  WAS
|
vs IND | 65% |
| 7 |  KC
proj |
@ LV | 64% |
| 8 |  DET
proj |
@ CAR | 60% |
| 9 |  PIT
|
@ CLE | 58% |
| 10 |  BUF
proj |
vs NE | 58% |
| 11 |  HOU
|
vs DAL | 58% |
| 12 |  LA
proj |
@ PHI | 55% |
| 13 |  GB
proj |
@ TB | 54% |
| 14 |  NO
proj |
vs ATL | 54% |
| 15 |  SF
proj |
vs DEN | 53% |
| 16 |  CIN
proj |
vs JAX | 51% |
Don't just pick the biggest favorite.
Picking the safest team every week gets you eliminated the moment you need them later. Our optimizer plans your whole season at once, tells you which team to spend now, and shows the forward path around the teams you've already used.
Open the survivor optimizer โPicks tagged "proj" use our simulated team strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. See also the NFL playoff & Super Bowl odds.