NFL ยท By the Numbers
How often do NFL games go over the total?
Almost exactly half. NFL games go over the posted total 49% of the time, on an average total of about 46 points. There is no free over, and no free under.
Over vs under
Over
49%
Under
51%
Across 2,629 games. The total is one of the sharpest lines in sports.
If you want an edge on a total you have to find a specific spot the market misprices, like wind, a dome, or two familiar defenses. The blanket over or under is a coin flip you pay vig on.
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Which AI actually predicts football best? Every model is graded in public on every pick.
The NFL Pick Board joins the boards for the 2026 season.
How we counted
Every number here comes from our own game database: 2,629 regular-season NFL games since 2016, rebuilt daily. We compute rates across all qualifying games, never a cherry-picked window. This is descriptive history, not a prediction, and it updates on its own.
Last recomputed August 13, 2026.
Keep digging
Does home field advantage matter in the NFL?
The home team wins, but by less than the reputation suggests.
Do NFL favorites cover the spread?
Under half. The spread is efficient, and chalk does not print.
How often do NFL favorites win straight up?
About two in three. Winning and covering are very different things.
Do NFL teams score more in domes?
Yes, and the indoor scoring bump is real and clean.
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