Are NFL Division Games Lower Scoring? The Numbers | Predicted Sports
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NFL · By the Numbers

Are NFL division games lower scoring?

Yes, a bit. NFL division games average 44.8 combined points versus 46.0 in non-division games. Familiar opponents who play twice a year tend to grind, and the gap is worth more than a point.

Combined points per game
Division games
44.8
Non-division games
46.0

Across 2,629 games. Small, but real and consistent.

Coaches know each other's tendencies, the games are often close and conservative, and division dogs tend to hang around. It is a genuine, if modest, nudge toward the under in rivalry weeks.

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Split scoring and totals by division and non-division games.
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How we counted

Every number here comes from our own game database: 2,629 regular-season NFL games since 2016, rebuilt daily. We compute rates across all qualifying games, never a cherry-picked window. This is descriptive history, not a prediction, and it updates on its own.

Last recomputed July 15, 2026.

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