NFL Playoff Odds

We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times off our team ratings, blended with the market win totals, then count how often each team makes the playoffs and how far they go. Our model's projections, graded in public. Updated Aug 28, 2026.

Division Odds Projected Bracket

Projected Super Bowl champion

Los Angeles Rams

12% to win it all across 10,000 simulations

Projected playoff field

AFC

1 HOU Houston Texans Division 10.3
2 BUF Buffalo Bills Division 10.2
3 BAL Baltimore Ravens Division 10.1
4 DEN Denver Broncos Division 10.0
5 NE New England Patriots Wild Card 9.8
6 JAX Jacksonville Jaguars Wild Card 9.4
7 LAC Los Angeles Chargers Wild Card 9.3

NFC

1 LA Los Angeles Rams Division 11.0
2 DET Detroit Lions Division 10.2
3 PHI Philadelphia Eagles Division 9.8
4 TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers Division 8.4
5 SEA Seattle Seahawks Wild Card 11.0
6 SF San Francisco 49ers Wild Card 9.5
7 GB Green Bay Packers Wild Card 9.1

The single most-likely field: division winners (top projected record in each division) as seeds 1 to 4, then the best three remaining teams as wild cards. Number = projected wins.

This is the single most-likely bracket, a snapshot from the same simulation. For every team's championship probability, see the full Super Bowl odds. Seeding tiebreakers are approximated.