Sim Says
NFL Playoff Odds
We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times off our team ratings, blended with the market win totals, then count how often each team makes the playoffs and how far they go. Our model's projections, graded in public. Updated Jul 14, 2026.
Projected Super Bowl champion
Los Angeles Rams
11% to win it all across 10,000 simulations
Projected playoff field
AFC
-
1
BUF
Division
10.2
-
2
BAL
Division
10.1
-
3
HOU
Division
10.0
-
4
DEN
Division
9.9
-
5
NE
Wild Card
9.8
-
6
CIN
Wild Card
9.3
-
7
JAX
Wild Card
9.2
NFC
-
1
LA
Division
11.0
-
2
DET
Division
10.1
-
3
PHI
Division
9.8
-
4
TB
Division
8.1
-
5
SEA
Wild Card
10.1
-
6
SF
Wild Card
9.8
-
7
GB
Wild Card
9.2
The single most-likely field: division winners (top projected record in each division) as seeds 1 to 4, then the best three remaining teams as wild cards. Number = projected wins.
Super Bowl odds
| Team | Reach SB | Win SB |
|---|---|---|
| LA |
19% | 11% |
| BUF |
15% | 8% |
| SEA |
12% | 7% |
| HOU |
12% | 6% |
| NE |
12% | 6% |
| BAL |
11% | 5% |
| DET |
10% | 5% |
| DEN |
11% | 5% |
| SF |
10% | 5% |
| PHI |
10% | 5% |
| JAX |
8% | 4% |
 LAC |
8% | 4% |
| GB |
7% | 3% |
 CHI |
7% | 3% |
 KC |
7% | 3% |
 MIN |
6% | 3% |
| CIN |
6% | 3% |
 DAL |
5% | 2% |
 PIT |
4% | 2% |
| TB |
3% | 2% |
 WAS |
3% | 1% |
 ATL |
3% | 1% |
 IND |
3% | 1% |
 NO |
2% | 1% |
 CAR |
2% | 1% |
 NYG |
2% | 1% |
 CLE |
1% | 0% |
 MIA |
1% | 0% |
 LV |
1% | 0% |
 TEN |
1% | 0% |
 NYJ |
0% | 0% |
 ARI |
0% | 0% |
Reach SB = share of simulations the team wins its conference. Win SB = share it wins the Super Bowl, across all 10,000 simulations. Seeding tiebreakers are approximated.