NFL Playoff Odds

We play out the rest of the season 10,000 times off our team ratings, blended with the market win totals, then count how often each team makes the playoffs and how far they go. Our model's projections, graded in public. Updated Jul 14, 2026.

Division Odds Super Bowl

AFC

AFC East

Team	Proj	Playoffs	Win Div	Bye	Market
BUF Buffalo Bills	10 (7-13)	72%	50%	14%	10.2
NE New England Patriots	10 (7-13)	66%	42%	11%	9.7
MIA Miami Dolphins	6 (3-9)	13%	5%	0%	4.8
NYJ New York Jets	6 (3-9)	10%	4%	0%	5.2

AFC North

Team	Proj	Playoffs	Win Div	Bye	Market
BAL Baltimore Ravens	10 (7-13)	67%	44%	13%	10.4
CIN Cincinnati Bengals	9 (6-13)	56%	30%	7%	9.8
PIT Pittsburgh Steelers	8 (5-12)	40%	19%	4%	7.9
CLE Cleveland Browns	7 (3-10)	19%	7%	1%	5.8

AFC South

Team	Proj	Playoffs	Win Div	Bye	Market
HOU Houston Texans	10 (7-13)	67%	46%	13%	9.5
JAX Jacksonville Jaguars	9 (6-13)	56%	33%	8%	8.7
IND Indianapolis Colts	8 (4-11)	33%	15%	3%	7.4
TEN Tennessee Titans	6 (3-10)	15%	6%	1%	6.2

AFC West

Team	Proj	Playoffs	Win Div	Bye	Market
DEN Denver Broncos	10 (7-13)	65%	39%	11%	9.5
LAC Los Angeles Chargers	9 (6-12)	54%	29%	7%	9.5
KC Kansas City Chiefs	9 (6-12)	52%	27%	6%	9.6
LV Las Vegas Raiders	6 (3-10)	15%	5%	1%	6.6

NFC

NFC East

Team	Proj	Playoffs	Win Div	Bye	Market
PHI Philadelphia Eagles	10 (6-13)	60%	43%	10%	9.8
DAL Dallas Cowboys	9 (5-12)	44%	26%	5%	9.3
WAS Washington Commanders	8 (5-11)	33%	19%	3%	8.1
NYG New York Giants	7 (4-11)	23%	12%	1%	7.2

NFC North

Team	Proj	Playoffs	Win Div	Bye	Market
DET Detroit Lions	10 (7-13)	62%	35%	11%	10.3
GB Green Bay Packers	9 (6-12)	47%	23%	6%	9.3
MIN Minnesota Vikings	9 (6-12)	47%	22%	6%	8.8
CHI Chicago Bears	9 (6-12)	46%	21%	6%	9.3

NFC South

Team	Proj	Playoffs	Win Div	Bye	Market
TB Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8 (5-12)	40%	29%	3%	7.9
NO New Orleans Saints	8 (5-11)	36%	27%	2%	8.0
ATL Atlanta Falcons	8 (4-11)	35%	25%	3%	7.4
CAR Carolina Panthers	7 (4-11)	26%	18%	2%	7.2

NFC West

Team	Proj	Playoffs	Win Div	Bye	Market
LA Los Angeles Rams	11 (8-14)	75%	44%	20%	11.5
SEA Seattle Seahawks	10 (7-13)	63%	30%	12%	9.0
SF San Francisco 49ers	10 (6-13)	58%	25%	10%	10.0
ARI Arizona Cardinals	5 (2-8)	5%	1%	0%	4.1

Proj = mean projected wins (10th to 90th percentile in parentheses). Bye = odds of the #1 seed and a first-round bye. Market = the team's Kalshi season win total, the anchor our projection blends with. Four division winners plus three wild cards per conference. Switch to the Super Bowl tab for the projected field and title odds.