Sim Says
Dallas Cowboys
NFC East · Projected 8.7 wins (5–12 range) · updated Jul 15
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
43%
Win division
26%
#1 seed / bye
4%
Reach Super Bowl
5%
Win Super Bowl
2%
Proj wins
8.7
Proj points for
382
Market win total
9.3
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
-0.061
Elo
1434
Off EPA/play
+0.074
Def EPA/play
+0.135
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @
 NYG
|
64% |
| 2 | vs
 WAS
|
64% |
| 3 | vs
 BAL
|
50% |
| 4 | @
 HOU
|
42% |
| 5 | vs
 TB
|
64% |
| 6 | @
 GB
proj |
41% |
| 7 | @
 PHI
proj |
39% |
| 8 | vs
 ARI
proj |
75% |
| 9 | @
 IND
proj |
53% |
| 10 | vs
 SF
proj |
48% |
| 11 | vs
 TEN
proj |
71% |
| 12 | vs
PHI
proj |
49% |
| 13 | @
 SEA
proj |
36% |
| 15 | @
 LA
proj |
30% |
| 16 | vs
 JAX
proj |
52% |
| 17 | vs
NYG
proj |
64% |
| 18 | @
WAS
proj |
49% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.