Sim Says
San Francisco 49ers
NFC West · Projected 9.8 wins (6–13 range) · updated Jul 14
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
58%
Win division
25%
#1 seed / bye
10%
Reach Super Bowl
10%
Win Super Bowl
5%
Proj wins
9.8
Proj points for
403
Market win total
10.0
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
+0.024
Elo
1587
Off EPA/play
+0.064
Def EPA/play
+0.040
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @
 LA
|
42% |
| 2 | vs
 MIA
|
88% |
| 3 | vs
 ARI
|
95% |
| 4 | vs
 DEN
|
64% |
| 5 | @
 SEA
|
42% |
| 6 | vs
 WAS
proj |
66% |
| 7 | @
 ATL
proj |
59% |
| 9 | vs
 LV
proj |
75% |
| 10 | @
 DAL
proj |
52% |
| 11 | vs
 MIN
proj |
60% |
| 12 | vs
SEA
proj |
52% |
| 13 | @
 NYG
proj |
62% |
| 14 | vs
LA
proj |
46% |
| 15 | @
 LAC
proj |
48% |
| 16 | @
 KC
proj |
50% |
| 17 | vs
 PHI
proj |
56% |
| 18 | @
ARI
proj |
72% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.