Sim Says
Denver Broncos
AFC West · Projected 9.9 wins (7–13 range) · updated Jul 15
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
66%
Win division
40%
#1 seed / bye
11%
Reach Super Bowl
11%
Win Super Bowl
6%
Proj wins
9.9
Proj points for
404
Market win total
9.5
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
+0.063
Elo
1655
Off EPA/play
-0.002
Def EPA/play
-0.065
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @
 KC
|
42% |
| 2 | vs
 JAX
|
64% |
| 3 | vs
 LA
|
41% |
| 4 | @
 SF
|
36% |
| 5 | @
 LAC
|
42% |
| 6 | vs
 SEA
|
41% |
| 7 | @
 ARI
proj |
74% |
| 8 | vs
KC
proj |
60% |
| 9 | @
 CAR
proj |
62% |
| 11 | vs
 LV
proj |
76% |
| 12 | @
 PIT
proj |
56% |
| 13 | vs
 MIA
proj |
76% |
| 14 | @
 NYJ
proj |
72% |
| 15 | @
LV
proj |
67% |
| 16 | vs
 BUF
proj |
52% |
| 17 | @
 NE
proj |
45% |
| 18 | vs
LAC
proj |
58% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.