Sim Says
Las Vegas Raiders
AFC West · Projected 6.3 wins (3–10 range) · updated Jul 14
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
15%
Win division
5%
#1 seed / bye
1%
Reach Super Bowl
1%
Win Super Bowl
0%
Proj wins
6.3
Proj points for
337
Market win total
6.6
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
-0.164
Elo
1269
Off EPA/play
-0.158
Def EPA/play
+0.006
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs
 MIA
|
58% |
| 2 | @
 LAC
|
20% |
| 3 | @
 NO
|
42% |
| 4 | vs
 KC
|
38% |
| 5 | @
 NE
|
20% |
| 6 | vs
 BUF
proj |
30% |
| 7 | vs
 LA
proj |
25% |
| 8 | @
 NYJ
proj |
51% |
| 9 | @
 SF
proj |
25% |
| 10 | vs
 SEA
proj |
30% |
| 11 | @
 DEN
proj |
24% |
| 12 | @
 CLE
proj |
46% |
| 14 | vs
LAC
proj |
35% |
| 15 | vs
DEN
proj |
33% |
| 16 | vs
 TEN
proj |
56% |
| 17 | @
 ARI
proj |
51% |
| 18 | @
KC
proj |
29% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.