Sim Says
New Orleans Saints
NFC South · Projected 8.0 wins (5–11 range) · updated Jul 14
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
36%
Win division
27%
#1 seed / bye
2%
Reach Super Bowl
2%
Win Super Bowl
1%
Proj wins
8.0
Proj points for
370
Market win total
8.0
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
-0.027
Elo
1404
Off EPA/play
-0.081
Def EPA/play
-0.054
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @
 DET
|
25% |
| 2 | @
 BAL
|
25% |
| 3 | vs
 LV
|
58% |
| 4 | vs
 ATL
|
58% |
| 5 | vs
 MIN
|
41% |
| 6 | @
 NYG
proj |
46% |
| 7 | vs
 PIT
proj |
50% |
| 9 | vs
 CLE
proj |
63% |
| 10 | vs
 CAR
proj |
56% |
| 11 | @
 CHI
proj |
34% |
| 12 | @
 CIN
proj |
37% |
| 13 | vs
 GB
proj |
43% |
| 14 | @
CAR
proj |
46% |
| 15 | @
 TB
proj |
41% |
| 16 | vs
 ARI
proj |
67% |
| 17 | @
ATL
proj |
43% |
| 18 | vs
TB
proj |
51% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.