Sim Says
Atlanta Falcons
NFC South · Projected 7.9 wins (4–11 range) · updated Jul 14
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
35%
Win division
25%
#1 seed / bye
3%
Reach Super Bowl
3%
Win Super Bowl
1%
Proj wins
7.9
Proj points for
367
Market win total
7.4
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
-0.013
Elo
1458
Off EPA/play
-0.019
Def EPA/play
-0.006
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @
 PIT
|
42% |
| 2 | vs
 CAR
proj |
57% |
| 3 | @
 GB
|
25% |
| 4 | @
 NO
|
42% |
| 5 | vs
 BAL
|
40% |
| 6 | vs
 CHI
proj |
45% |
| 7 | vs
 SF
proj |
41% |
| 8 | @
 TB
proj |
43% |
| 9 | vs
 CIN
proj |
48% |
| 10 | vs
 KC
proj |
46% |
| 12 | @
 MIN
proj |
37% |
| 13 | vs
 DET
proj |
43% |
| 14 | @
 CLE
proj |
55% |
| 15 | @
 WAS
proj |
43% |
| 16 | vs
TB
proj |
53% |
| 17 | vs
NO
proj |
57% |
| 18 | @
CAR
proj |
48% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.