Sim Says
Detroit Lions
NFC North · Projected 10.1 wins (7–13 range) · updated Jul 14
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
62%
Win division
35%
#1 seed / bye
11%
Reach Super Bowl
10%
Win Super Bowl
5%
Proj wins
10.1
Proj points for
409
Market win total
10.3
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
+0.044
Elo
1581
Off EPA/play
+0.043
Def EPA/play
-0.001
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs
 NO
|
75% |
| 2 | @
 BUF
|
42% |
| 3 | vs
 NYJ
|
75% |
| 4 | @
 CAR
|
51% |
| 5 | @
 ARI
|
81% |
| 7 | vs
 GB
proj |
57% |
| 8 | vs
 MIN
proj |
58% |
| 9 | @
 MIA
proj |
66% |
| 10 | vs
 NE
proj |
53% |
| 11 | vs
 TB
proj |
64% |
| 12 | vs
 CHI
proj |
57% |
| 13 | @
 ATL
proj |
57% |
| 14 | vs
 TEN
proj |
76% |
| 15 | @
MIN
proj |
49% |
| 16 | vs
 NYG
proj |
69% |
| 17 | @
CHI
proj |
48% |
| 18 | @
GB
proj |
47% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.