Sim Says
Miami Dolphins
AFC East · Projected 6.0 wins (3–9 range) · updated Jul 14
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
13%
Win division
5%
#1 seed / bye
0%
Reach Super Bowl
1%
Win Super Bowl
0%
Proj wins
6.0
Proj points for
332
Market win total
4.8
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
-0.104
Elo
1433
Off EPA/play
-0.038
Def EPA/play
+0.065
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @
 LV
|
42% |
| 2 | @
 SF
|
12% |
| 3 | vs
 KC
|
36% |
| 4 | @
 MIN
|
27% |
| 5 | vs
 CIN
|
38% |
| 7 | @
 NYJ
proj |
51% |
| 8 | vs
 NE
proj |
33% |
| 9 | vs
 DET
proj |
34% |
| 10 | @
 IND
proj |
37% |
| 11 | @
 BUF
proj |
22% |
| 12 | vs
NYJ
proj |
60% |
| 13 | @
 DEN
proj |
24% |
| 14 | vs
 CHI
proj |
36% |
| 15 | @
 GB
proj |
27% |
| 16 | vs
 LAC
proj |
35% |
| 17 | vs
BUF
proj |
30% |
| 18 | @
NE
proj |
24% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.