Sim Says
Kansas City Chiefs
AFC West · Projected 9.1 wins (6–12 range) · updated Jul 14
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
52%
Win division
27%
#1 seed / bye
6%
Reach Super Bowl
7%
Win Super Bowl
3%
Proj wins
9.1
Proj points for
389
Market win total
9.6
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
+0.044
Elo
1483
Off EPA/play
+0.020
Def EPA/play
-0.023
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs
 DEN
|
58% |
| 2 | vs
 IND
|
75% |
| 3 | @
 MIA
|
64% |
| 4 | @
 LV
|
62% |
| 6 | vs
 LAC
proj |
53% |
| 7 | @
 SEA
proj |
38% |
| 8 | @
DEN
proj |
40% |
| 9 | vs
 NYJ
proj |
76% |
| 10 | @
 ATL
proj |
54% |
| 11 | vs
 ARI
proj |
76% |
| 12 | @
 BUF
proj |
37% |
| 13 | @
 LA
proj |
32% |
| 14 | @
 CIN
proj |
47% |
| 15 | vs
 NE
proj |
50% |
| 16 | vs
 SF
proj |
50% |
| 17 | @
LAC
proj |
43% |
| 18 | vs
LV
proj |
71% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.