Sim Says
Indianapolis Colts
AFC South · Projected 7.7 wins (4–11 range) · updated Jul 15
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
33%
Win division
16%
#1 seed / bye
3%
Reach Super Bowl
3%
Win Super Bowl
1%
Proj wins
7.7
Proj points for
365
Market win total
7.4
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
+0.071
Elo
1446
Off EPA/play
+0.082
Def EPA/play
+0.011
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs
 BAL
|
38% |
| 2 | @
 KC
|
25% |
| 3 | vs
 HOU
|
38% |
| 4 | @
 WAS
|
36% |
| 5 | @
 PIT
|
36% |
| 6 | vs
 TEN
proj |
64% |
| 7 | @
 MIN
proj |
36% |
| 8 | @
 JAX
proj |
36% |
| 9 | vs
 DAL
proj |
47% |
| 10 | vs
 MIA
proj |
63% |
| 11 | @
HOU
proj |
31% |
| 12 | vs
 NYG
proj |
57% |
| 14 | @
 PHI
proj |
33% |
| 15 | @
TEN
proj |
55% |
| 16 | vs
 CIN
proj |
47% |
| 17 | @
 CLE
proj |
54% |
| 18 | vs
JAX
proj |
45% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.