Sim Says
Pittsburgh Steelers
AFC North · Projected 8.3 wins (5–12 range) · updated Jul 15
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
41%
Win division
20%
#1 seed / bye
4%
Reach Super Bowl
4%
Win Super Bowl
1%
Proj wins
8.3
Proj points for
375
Market win total
7.9
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
-0.027
Elo
1509
Off EPA/play
-0.007
Def EPA/play
+0.020
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs
 ATL
|
58% |
| 2 | @
 NE
|
36% |
| 3 | vs
 CIN
|
41% |
| 4 | @
 CLE
|
62% |
| 5 | vs
 IND
|
64% |
| 6 | @
 TB
proj |
46% |
| 7 | @
 NO
proj |
50% |
| 8 | vs
CLE
proj |
67% |
| 10 | @
CIN
proj |
42% |
| 11 | @
 PHI
proj |
36% |
| 12 | vs
 DEN
proj |
44% |
| 13 | vs
 HOU
proj |
44% |
| 14 | @
 JAX
proj |
39% |
| 15 | vs
 BAL
proj |
45% |
| 16 | vs
 CAR
proj |
61% |
| 17 | @
 TEN
proj |
59% |
| 18 | @
BAL
proj |
36% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.