Sim Says
Carolina Panthers
NFC South · Projected 7.2 wins (4–11 range) · updated Jul 14
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
26%
Win division
18%
#1 seed / bye
2%
Reach Super Bowl
2%
Win Super Bowl
1%
Proj wins
7.2
Proj points for
356
Market win total
7.2
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
-0.068
Elo
1392
Off EPA/play
-0.035
Def EPA/play
+0.033
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs
 CHI
|
49% |
| 2 | @
 ATL
proj |
43% |
| 3 | @
 CLE
|
64% |
| 4 | vs
 DET
|
49% |
| 6 | @
 PHI
proj |
31% |
| 7 | vs
 TB
proj |
50% |
| 8 | @
 GB
proj |
33% |
| 9 | vs
 DEN
proj |
38% |
| 10 | @
 NO
proj |
44% |
| 11 | vs
 BAL
proj |
39% |
| 12 | @
TB
proj |
40% |
| 13 | @
 MIN
proj |
34% |
| 14 | vs
NO
proj |
54% |
| 15 | vs
 CIN
proj |
45% |
| 16 | @
 PIT
proj |
40% |
| 17 | vs
 SEA
proj |
36% |
| 18 | vs
ATL
proj |
52% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.