Sim Says
Green Bay Packers
NFC North · Projected 9.2 wins (6–12 range) · updated Jul 14
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
47%
Win division
23%
#1 seed / bye
6%
Reach Super Bowl
7%
Win Super Bowl
3%
Proj wins
9.2
Proj points for
390
Market win total
9.3
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
+0.063
Elo
1538
Off EPA/play
+0.088
Def EPA/play
+0.025
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @
 MIN
|
51% |
| 2 | @
 NYJ
|
62% |
| 3 | vs
 ATL
|
75% |
| 4 | @
 TB
proj |
53% |
| 5 | vs
 CHI
proj |
55% |
| 6 | vs
 DAL
proj |
58% |
| 7 | @
 DET
proj |
43% |
| 8 | vs
 CAR
proj |
67% |
| 9 | @
 NE
proj |
42% |
| 10 | vs
MIN
proj |
56% |
| 12 | @
 LA
proj |
34% |
| 13 | @
 NO
proj |
57% |
| 14 | vs
 BUF
proj |
48% |
| 15 | vs
 MIA
proj |
73% |
| 16 | @
CHI
proj |
46% |
| 17 | vs
 HOU
proj |
51% |
| 18 | vs
DET
proj |
53% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.