Sim Says
Chicago Bears
NFC North · Projected 9.1 wins (6–12 range) · updated Jul 15
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
47%
Win division
21%
#1 seed / bye
6%
Reach Super Bowl
7%
Win Super Bowl
3%
Proj wins
9.1
Proj points for
390
Market win total
9.4
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
+0.026
Elo
1539
Off EPA/play
+0.047
Def EPA/play
+0.021
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @
 CAR
|
51% |
| 2 | vs
 MIN
|
64% |
| 3 | vs
 PHI
proj |
52% |
| 4 | vs
 NYJ
|
75% |
| 5 | @
 GB
proj |
45% |
| 6 | @
 ATL
proj |
55% |
| 7 | vs
 NE
proj |
50% |
| 8 | @
 SEA
proj |
39% |
| 9 | vs
 TB
proj |
62% |
| 11 | vs
 NO
proj |
66% |
| 12 | @
 DET
proj |
43% |
| 13 | vs
 JAX
proj |
56% |
| 14 | @
 MIA
proj |
64% |
| 15 | @
 BUF
proj |
38% |
| 16 | vs
GB
proj |
54% |
| 17 | vs
DET
proj |
52% |
| 18 | @
MIN
proj |
46% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.