Sim Says
Jacksonville Jaguars
AFC South · Projected 9.2 wins (6–13 range) · updated Jul 14
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
56%
Win division
33%
#1 seed / bye
8%
Reach Super Bowl
8%
Win Super Bowl
4%
Proj wins
9.2
Proj points for
391
Market win total
8.7
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
+0.096
Elo
1596
Off EPA/play
+0.032
Def EPA/play
-0.064
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs
 CLE
|
80% |
| 2 | @
 DEN
|
36% |
| 3 | vs
 NE
proj |
50% |
| 4 | @
 CIN
|
42% |
| 5 | vs
 PHI
|
49% |
| 6 | vs
 HOU
|
41% |
| 8 | vs
 IND
proj |
64% |
| 9 | @
 BAL
proj |
41% |
| 10 | @
 TEN
proj |
65% |
| 11 | @
 NYG
proj |
57% |
| 12 | vs
TEN
proj |
73% |
| 13 | @
 CHI
proj |
45% |
| 14 | vs
 PIT
proj |
61% |
| 15 | @
HOU
proj |
41% |
| 16 | @
 DAL
proj |
48% |
| 17 | vs
 WAS
proj |
61% |
| 18 | @
IND
proj |
55% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.