Sim Says
Washington Commanders
NFC East · Projected 8.0 wins (5–11 range) · updated Jul 14
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
33%
Win division
19%
#1 seed / bye
3%
Reach Super Bowl
3%
Win Super Bowl
1%
Proj wins
8.0
Proj points for
370
Market win total
8.1
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
-0.092
Elo
1442
Off EPA/play
+0.021
Def EPA/play
+0.113
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @
 PHI
|
42% |
| 2 | @
 DAL
|
36% |
| 3 | vs
 SEA
|
41% |
| 4 | vs
 IND
|
64% |
| 5 | vs
 NYG
|
64% |
| 6 | @
 SF
proj |
34% |
| 8 | vs
PHI
proj |
45% |
| 9 | vs
 LA
proj |
35% |
| 10 | @
NYG
proj |
50% |
| 11 | vs
 CIN
proj |
50% |
| 12 | @
 ARI
proj |
62% |
| 13 | @
 TEN
proj |
58% |
| 14 | vs
 HOU
proj |
43% |
| 15 | vs
 ATL
proj |
57% |
| 16 | @
 MIN
proj |
39% |
| 17 | @
 JAX
proj |
39% |
| 18 | vs
DAL
proj |
50% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.