Sim Says
New England Patriots
AFC East · Projected 9.8 wins (7–13 range) · updated Jul 14
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
66%
Win division
42%
#1 seed / bye
11%
Reach Super Bowl
12%
Win Super Bowl
6%
Proj wins
9.8
Proj points for
403
Market win total
9.7
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
+0.124
Elo
1635
Off EPA/play
+0.073
Def EPA/play
-0.051
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @
 SEA
|
42% |
| 2 | vs
 PIT
|
64% |
| 3 | @
 JAX
proj |
50% |
| 4 | @
 BUF
|
42% |
| 5 | vs
 LV
|
80% |
| 6 | vs
 NYJ
proj |
80% |
| 7 | @
 CHI
proj |
49% |
| 8 | @
 MIA
proj |
68% |
| 9 | vs
 GB
proj |
58% |
| 10 | @
 DET
proj |
47% |
| 12 | @
 LAC
proj |
48% |
| 13 | vs
BUF
proj |
52% |
| 14 | vs
 MIN
proj |
60% |
| 15 | @
 KC
proj |
50% |
| 16 | @
NYJ
proj |
72% |
| 17 | vs
 DEN
proj |
55% |
| 18 | vs
MIA
proj |
76% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.