Sim Says
Los Angeles Chargers
AFC West · Projected 9.2 wins (6–12 range) · updated Jul 14
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
54%
Win division
29%
#1 seed / bye
7%
Reach Super Bowl
8%
Win Super Bowl
4%
Proj wins
9.2
Proj points for
392
Market win total
9.5
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
+0.031
Elo
1537
Off EPA/play
-0.028
Def EPA/play
-0.059
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs
 ARI
|
88% |
| 2 | vs
 LV
|
80% |
| 3 | @
 BUF
|
42% |
| 4 | @
 SEA
|
42% |
| 5 | vs
 DEN
|
58% |
| 6 | @
 KC
proj |
47% |
| 8 | @
 LA
proj |
34% |
| 9 | vs
 HOU
proj |
52% |
| 10 | @
 BAL
proj |
43% |
| 11 | vs
 NYJ
proj |
78% |
| 12 | vs
 NE
proj |
52% |
| 13 | @
 TB
proj |
54% |
| 14 | @
LV
proj |
65% |
| 15 | vs
 SF
proj |
52% |
| 16 | @
 MIA
proj |
65% |
| 17 | vs
KC
proj |
57% |
| 18 | @
DEN
proj |
42% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.