Sim Says
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC South · Projected 8.1 wins (5–12 range) · updated Jul 14
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
40%
Win division
29%
#1 seed / bye
3%
Reach Super Bowl
3%
Win Super Bowl
2%
Proj wins
8.1
Proj points for
372
Market win total
7.9
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
+0.004
Elo
1467
Off EPA/play
+0.013
Def EPA/play
+0.008
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @
 CIN
|
42% |
| 2 | vs
 CLE
|
75% |
| 3 | vs
 MIN
|
58% |
| 4 | vs
 GB
proj |
47% |
| 5 | @
 DAL
|
36% |
| 6 | vs
 PIT
proj |
54% |
| 7 | @
 CAR
proj |
50% |
| 8 | vs
 ATL
proj |
57% |
| 9 | @
 CHI
proj |
38% |
| 11 | @
 DET
proj |
36% |
| 12 | vs
CAR
proj |
60% |
| 13 | vs
 LAC
proj |
46% |
| 14 | @
 BAL
proj |
35% |
| 15 | vs
 NO
proj |
59% |
| 16 | @
ATL
proj |
47% |
| 17 | vs
 LA
proj |
35% |
| 18 | @
NO
proj |
49% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.