Sim Says
Buffalo Bills
AFC East · Projected 10.2 wins (7–13 range) · updated Jul 15
2026 outlook
Make playoffs
71%
Win division
49%
#1 seed / bye
15%
Reach Super Bowl
15%
Win Super Bowl
8%
Proj wins
10.2
Proj points for
410
Market win total
10.2
Market win total is the Vegas/Kalshi season line, which our projection blends with our own ratings.
Team rating
Net rating
+0.106
Elo
1656
Off EPA/play
+0.113
Def EPA/play
+0.007
EPA per play, opponent-adjusted. For defense, lower (more negative) is better.
Projected schedule & win probabilities
| Wk | Opponent | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | @
 HOU
|
51% |
| 2 | vs
 DET
|
58% |
| 3 | vs
 LAC
|
58% |
| 4 | vs
 NE
|
58% |
| 5 | @
 LA
|
36% |
| 6 | @
 LV
proj |
70% |
| 8 | vs
 BAL
proj |
59% |
| 9 | @
 MIN
proj |
54% |
| 10 | @
 NYJ
proj |
75% |
| 11 | vs
 MIA
proj |
78% |
| 12 | vs
 KC
proj |
63% |
| 13 | @
NE
proj |
48% |
| 14 | @
 GB
proj |
52% |
| 15 | vs
 CHI
proj |
62% |
| 16 | @
 DEN
proj |
49% |
| 17 | @
MIA
proj |
71% |
| 18 | vs
NYJ
proj |
82% |
"proj" weeks use our simulated strength (no betting line posted yet) and sharpen as lines post. Bye weeks are omitted.