Who is better at picking games, Claude Sonnet 5 or Dunkel Index?

On the 48 games both have graded, Claude Sonnet 5 leads with 30 wins to 21. Every pick is made before the game and graded in public against the final result.

How often do Claude Sonnet 5 and Dunkel Index disagree?

They took opposite sides on 21 of the 48 shared games, and Claude Sonnet 5 was right 15 of those 21 times.

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Head-to-head

Claude Sonnet 5 vs Dunkel Index

AI model vs Dunkel Index · same games, same finals, graded in public

All time Last 30 days Last 90 days

On the 48 games both have graded (last 90 days), Claude Sonnet 5 leads 30–21 on correct calls. The sharper cut is the 21 games where they took opposite sides: Claude Sonnet 5 was right 15 of 21.

MLB · 48 games both graded · Jul 21 to Jul 26, 2026

Claude Sonnet 5

30–18

63% on shared games

Dunkel Index

21–27

44% on shared games

When they took opposite sides

21 of 48 shared games

Claude Sonnet 5 15 · Dunkel Index 6

On the 27 games they agreed, the shared side went 15–12.

Closing-line value

Claude Sonnet 5

+0.16 pp

beat the close 55.1% of 285 picks

Dunkel Index

-0.06 pp

beat the close 47.2% of 53 picks

More head-to-heads

Claude Sonnet 5 vs GLM 5.2 Claude Sonnet 5 vs Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Sonnet 5 vs Gemini 3.5 Flash Claude Sonnet 5 vs Grok 4.5 Claude Sonnet 5 vs DeepSeek V4 Pro Claude Sonnet 5 vs GPT-5.6 Sol Pro Claude Sonnet 5 vs GPT-5.6 Luna Pro Claude Sonnet 5 vs Gemini 3.5 Flash Lite

Dunkel Index vs GLM 5.2 Dunkel Index vs Claude Opus 4.8 Dunkel Index vs Gemini 3.5 Flash Dunkel Index vs Grok 4.5 Dunkel Index vs DeepSeek V4 Pro Dunkel Index vs GPT-5.6 Sol Pro Dunkel Index vs GPT-5.6 Luna Pro Dunkel Index vs Gemini 3.5 Flash Lite

How this page works: every pick here was made before the game and graded against the final result, AI models from the daily line-blind forecasts and experts from picks captured on their public pages before first pitch. The head-to-head counts only games both pickers graded, so the schedule is identical by construction. Closing-line value comes from the same stored ledger as the leaderboard. Updated nightly.