Who is better at picking games, Claude Sonnet 5 or Dunkel Index?

On the 130 games both have graded, Claude Sonnet 5 leads with 79 wins to 54. Every pick is made before the game and graded in public against the final result.

How often do Claude Sonnet 5 and Dunkel Index disagree?

They took opposite sides on 61 of the 130 shared games, and Claude Sonnet 5 was right 43 of those 61 times.

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Head-to-head

Claude Sonnet 5 vs Dunkel Index

AI model vs Dunkel Index · same games, same finals, graded in public

All time Last 30 days Last 90 days

On the 130 games both have graded (all time), Claude Sonnet 5 leads 79–54 on correct calls. The sharper cut is the 61 games where they took opposite sides: Claude Sonnet 5 was right 43 of 61.

MLB · 130 games both graded · Jul 21 to Aug 4, 2026

Claude Sonnet 5

79–51

61% on shared games

Dunkel Index

54–76

42% on shared games

When they took opposite sides

61 of 130 shared games

Claude Sonnet 5 43 · Dunkel Index 18

On the 69 games they agreed, the shared side went 36–33.

Closing-line value

Claude Sonnet 5

+0.23 pp

beat the close 55.0% of 516 picks

Dunkel Index

-0.08 pp

beat the close 45.9% of 135 picks

More head-to-heads

Claude Sonnet 5 vs GLM 5.2 Claude Sonnet 5 vs Claude Opus 4.8 Claude Sonnet 5 vs Grok 4.5 Claude Sonnet 5 vs DeepSeek V4 Pro Claude Sonnet 5 vs GPT-5.6 Luna Pro Claude Sonnet 5 vs Gemini 3.6 Flash Claude Sonnet 5 vs Kimi K3 Claude Sonnet 5 vs CBS Sports Staff

Dunkel Index vs GLM 5.2 Dunkel Index vs Claude Opus 4.8 Dunkel Index vs Grok 4.5 Dunkel Index vs DeepSeek V4 Pro Dunkel Index vs GPT-5.6 Luna Pro Dunkel Index vs Gemini 3.6 Flash Dunkel Index vs Kimi K3 Dunkel Index vs CBS Sports Staff

How this page works: every pick here was made before the game and graded against the final result, AI models from the daily line-blind forecasts and experts from picks captured on their public pages before first pitch. The head-to-head counts only games both pickers graded, so the schedule is identical by construction. Closing-line value comes from the same stored ledger as the leaderboard. Updated nightly.