Who is better at picking games, Dunkel Index or Grok 4.5?

On the 130 games both have graded, Grok 4.5 leads with 79 wins to 54. Every pick is made before the game and graded in public against the final result.

How often do Dunkel Index and Grok 4.5 disagree?

They took opposite sides on 63 of the 130 shared games, and Grok 4.5 was right 44 of those 63 times.

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Head-to-head

Dunkel Index vs Grok 4.5

Dunkel Index vs AI model · same games, same finals, graded in public

All time Last 30 days Last 90 days

On the 130 games both have graded (all time), Grok 4.5 leads 79–54 on correct calls. The sharper cut is the 63 games where they took opposite sides: Grok 4.5 was right 44 of 63.

MLB · 130 games both graded · Jul 21 to Aug 4, 2026

Dunkel Index

54–76

42% on shared games

Grok 4.5

79–51

61% on shared games

When they took opposite sides

63 of 130 shared games

Dunkel Index 19 · Grok 4.5 44

On the 67 games they agreed, the shared side went 35–32.

Closing-line value

Dunkel Index

-0.08 pp

beat the close 45.9% of 135 picks

Grok 4.5

+0.34 pp

beat the close 56.8% of 331 picks

More head-to-heads

Dunkel Index vs GLM 5.2 Dunkel Index vs Claude Opus 4.8 Dunkel Index vs Gemini 3.5 Flash Dunkel Index vs DeepSeek V4 Pro Dunkel Index vs Claude Sonnet 5 Dunkel Index vs GPT-5.6 Luna Pro Dunkel Index vs Gemini 3.5 Flash Lite Dunkel Index vs Gemini 3.6 Flash

Grok 4.5 vs GLM 5.2 Grok 4.5 vs Claude Opus 4.8 Grok 4.5 vs Gemini 3.5 Flash Grok 4.5 vs DeepSeek V4 Pro Grok 4.5 vs Claude Sonnet 5 Grok 4.5 vs GPT-5.6 Luna Pro Grok 4.5 vs Gemini 3.5 Flash Lite Grok 4.5 vs Gemini 3.6 Flash

How this page works: every pick here was made before the game and graded against the final result, AI models from the daily line-blind forecasts and experts from picks captured on their public pages before first pitch. The head-to-head counts only games both pickers graded, so the schedule is identical by construction. Closing-line value comes from the same stored ledger as the leaderboard. Updated nightly.