Claude Sonnet 5 vs Grok 4.5: Graded Prediction Head-to-Head | Predicted Sports
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Claude Sonnet 5 vs Grok 4.5

AI model vs AI model · same games, same finals, graded in public

On the 868 games both have graded (last 90 days), Claude Sonnet 5 leads 508–492 on correct calls. The sharper cut is the 50 games where they took opposite sides: Claude Sonnet 5 was right 33 of 50.

MLB · 752 games both graded · to

Claude Sonnet 5
429–323
57% on shared games
Grok 4.5
416–336
55% on shared games
When they took opposite sides
43 of 752 shared games
Claude Sonnet 5 28 · Grok 4.5 15

On the 709 games they agreed, the shared side went –.

UFC · 116 games both graded · to

Claude Sonnet 5
79–37
68% on shared games
Grok 4.5
76–40
66% on shared games
When they took opposite sides
7 of 116 shared games
Claude Sonnet 5 5 · Grok 4.5 2

On the 109 games they agreed, the shared side went –.

Closing-line value
Claude Sonnet 5
+0.18 pp
beat the close 55.2% of 852 picks
Grok 4.5
+0.21 pp
beat the close 55.3% of 752 picks

More head-to-heads

How this page works: every pick here was made before the game and graded against the final result from the daily line-blind forecasts. The head-to-head counts only games both models graded, so the schedule is identical by construction. Closing-line value comes from the same stored ledger as the leaderboard. Updated nightly.