Claude Sonnet 5 vs Grok 4.5: Graded Prediction Head-to-Head | Predicted Sports
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Claude Sonnet 5 vs Grok 4.5

AI model vs AI model · same games, same finals, graded in public

On the 418 games both have graded (last 30 days), Claude Sonnet 5 leads 240–230 on correct calls. The sharper cut is the 26 games where they took opposite sides: Claude Sonnet 5 was right 18 of 26.

MLB · 366 games both graded · to

Claude Sonnet 5
213–153
58% on shared games
Grok 4.5
204–162
56% on shared games
When they took opposite sides
21 of 366 shared games
Claude Sonnet 5 15 · Grok 4.5 6

On the 345 games they agreed, the shared side went –.

UFC · 52 games both graded · to

Claude Sonnet 5
27–25
52% on shared games
Grok 4.5
26–26
50% on shared games
When they took opposite sides
5 of 52 shared games
Claude Sonnet 5 3 · Grok 4.5 2

On the 47 games they agreed, the shared side went –.

Closing-line value
Claude Sonnet 5
+0.18 pp
beat the close 55.2% of 852 picks
Grok 4.5
+0.21 pp
beat the close 55.3% of 752 picks

More head-to-heads

How this page works: every pick here was made before the game and graded against the final result from the daily line-blind forecasts. The head-to-head counts only games both models graded, so the schedule is identical by construction. Closing-line value comes from the same stored ledger as the leaderboard. Updated nightly.