Sim Says
MLB Playoff Odds
We play out the rest of the regular season and the playoffs 10,000 times off our team ratings, then count how often each team reaches October and how far they go. Our model's projections, graded in public, not betting-market odds. Updated Jul 14, 2026.
Projected World Series champion
Los Angeles Dodgers
26% to win it all across 10,000 simulations
American League
Wild Card
TEX
CWS
NYY
BOS
Division Series
TB
NYY
CLE
TEX
Championship
CLE
NYY
Projected pennant: NYY
National League
Wild Card
ATL
MIA
CHC
PHI
Division Series
LAD
CHC
MIL
ATL
Championship
LAD
MIL
Projected pennant: LAD
World Series
LAD
NYY
Full title odds
Market as of Jul 14| Team | Our Win WS | Market | Edge | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD |
26% | 29% | ↓ -3.3pp | — |
| MIL |
25% | 7% | ↑ +17.4pp | — |
| NYY |
11% | 13% | ↓ -1.8pp | — |
| TB |
6% | 5% | ↑ +1.1pp | — |
| CLE |
5% | 3% | ↑ +2.4pp | — |
| ATL |
5% | 6% | ↓ -1.7pp | — |
| CHC |
4% | 4% | ≈ | — |
| PHI |
4% | 6% | ↓ -2.5pp | — |
| BOS |
4% | 2% | ↑ +1.5pp | — |
 SEA |
3% | 6% | ↓ -3.4pp | — |
| TEX |
2% | 3% | ↓ -1.7pp | — |
| CWS |
1% | 2% | ≈ | — |
| MIA |
1% | 1% | ≈ | — |
 DET |
1% | 2% | ≈ | — |
 TOR |
1% | 2% | ↓ -1.7pp | — |
 HOU |
1% | 2% | ↓ -1.1pp | — |
 AZ |
1% | 1% | ≈ | — |
 SD |
1% | 1% | ≈ | — |
 PIT |
0% | 1% | ≈ | — |
 STL |
0% | 1% | ≈ | — |
 MIN |
0% | 1% | ≈ | — |
 BAL |
0% | 1% | ≈ | — |
 WSH |
0% | 0% | ≈ | — |
The bracket shows the single most-likely path (the favorite of each series advances, series odds from our ratings). Title odds are the share of all 10,000 simulations each team wins. Market = de-vigged consensus of the World Series futures across our books (Edge = our odds minus the market's, in points). 7d = change in our Win WS% vs last week's snapshot. Home field and exact tiebreakers are approximated.