Sim Says
MLB Playoff Odds
We play out the rest of the regular season and the playoffs 10,000 times off our team ratings, then count how often each team reaches October and how far they go. Our model's projections, graded in public, not betting-market odds. Updated Sep 9, 2026.
Projected World Series champion
Milwaukee Brewers
25% to win it all across 10,000 simulations
American League
Wild Card
HOU
CLE
NYY
BOS
Division Series
TB
NYY
CWS
HOU
Championship
TB
CWS
Projected pennant: TB
National League
Wild Card
ATL
SD
PHI
CHC
Division Series
MIL
PHI
LAD
ATL
Championship
MIL
LAD
Projected pennant: MIL
World Series
MIL
TB
Full title odds
Market as of Sep 10| Team | Our Win WS | Market | Edge | 7d |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL |
25% | 11% | ↑ +14.6pp | ↓-2.1 |
| LAD |
21% | 30% | ↓ -8.8pp | ↑+5.0 |
| TB |
11% | 8% | ↑ +2.7pp | ↑+1.3 |
| NYY |
10% | 10% | ≈ | ↓-2.3 |
| BOS |
6% | 6% | ≈ | ↑+0.6 |
| ATL |
5% | 6% | ≈ | ↓-1.8 |
| CHC |
5% | 5% | ≈ | — |
| PHI |
4% | 6% | ↓ -1.8pp | ↓-1.0 |
| CWS |
3% | 4% | ≈ | — |
| HOU |
3% | 5% | ↓ -1.9pp | — |
| SD |
2% | 2% | ≈ | — |
| CLE |
2% | 2% | ≈ | — |
 TOR |
1% | 2% | ≈ | — |
 AZ |
1% | 1% | ≈ | — |
 TEX |
0% | 2% | ↓ -1.1pp | — |
 BAL |
0% | 0% | ≈ | — |
 DET |
0% | 0% | ≈ | — |
 SEA |
0% | 0% | ≈ | — |
 MIN |
0% | 0% | ≈ | — |
The bracket shows the single most-likely path (the favorite of each series advances, series odds from our ratings). Title odds are the share of all 10,000 simulations each team wins. Market = de-vigged consensus of the World Series futures across our books (Edge = our odds minus the market's, in points). 7d = change in our Win WS% vs last week's snapshot. Home field and exact tiebreakers are approximated.