Sim Says
MLB Playoff Odds
We play out the rest of the regular season and the playoffs 10,000 times off our team ratings, then count how often each team reaches October and how far they go. Our model's projections, graded in public, not betting-market odds. Updated Sep 16, 2026.
American League
East
| Team | W-L | Proj | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
TB
|
91-59 | 96 (94-99) |
|
NYY
|
88-64 | 94 (92-96) |
|
BOS
|
82-69 | 87 (85-89) |
|
TOR
|
76-77 | 81 (79-83) |
|
BAL
|
74-78 | 78 (76-80) |
|
Central
| Team | W-L | Proj | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
CLE
|
78-75 | 83 (81-85) |
|
CWS
|
77-75 | 82 (80-84) |
|
DET
|
72-80 | 77 (75-79) |
|
MIN
|
71-81 | 76 (74-78) |
|
KC
|
66-85 | 71 (69-73) |
|
West
| Team | W-L | Proj | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
HOU
|
76-75 | 81 (79-83) |
|
TEX
|
75-76 | 80 (78-82) |
|
SEA
|
70-82 | 76 (74-78) |
|
ATH
|
61-90 | 65 (63-67) |
|
LAA
|
58-93 | 63 (61-65) |
|
National League
East
| Team | W-L | Proj | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
ATL
|
89-63 | 94 (92-96) |
|
PHI
|
83-68 | 88 (86-90) |
|
MIA
|
75-77 | 79 (77-81) |
|
WSH
|
71-81 | 75 (73-77) |
|
NYM
|
69-82 | 74 (72-76) |
|
Central
| Team | W-L | Proj | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
MIL
|
94-57 | 100 (98-102) |
|
CHC
|
84-68 | 89 (87-91) |
|
PIT
|
75-76 | 80 (78-82) |
|
STL
|
75-78 | 79 (77-81) |
|
CIN
|
70-81 | 74 (72-76) |
|
West
| Team | W-L | Proj | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
LAD
|
92-59 | 98 (96-100) |
|
SD
|
82-69 | 88 (86-90) |
|
AZ
|
80-72 | 85 (83-87) |
|
SF
|
64-89 | 68 (66-70) |
|
COL
|
56-95 | 60 (58-62) |
|
Proj = mean projected wins (10th to 90th percentile in parentheses). Three division winners plus three wild cards per league. Tiebreakers are approximated by wins then rating. Switch to the World Series tab for the projected bracket and title odds.