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The Train Keeps Rolling: World Cup Day Five!
The model is performing really well. Today we'll take a deeper look at it.
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82% ROI on the World Cup Heading Into Day Four!
Day Four at the World Cup: a 27-point gap on Ivory Coast vs Ecuador, the new rule behind our 8-1 run, and why a longshot just paid for our worst day.
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We're 10-1-1 on the World Cup So Far - Here's Saturday's Lineup
Two days down, and the early returns are honestly a little silly. Our forecasts have gone ten and two, and the value bets are up about 83 percent. I built this thing to be graded in public, and so ...
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World Cup 2026 Updating Model
We post the pics almost every day, but this is where you can see the model as it updates somewhat “live.” Photo by Fauzan Saari on UnsplashWe’ll try and update the model on a daily basis after the ...
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Day Two of the World Cup, Picked
After a perfect opening day, here is what the model likes for Canada vs Bosnia and USA vs Paraguay.
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World Cup Day One: Mexico, Korea, and Where We Disagree With the Bookies
The model likes Mexico more than the market does and thinks South Africa gets shut out. Here's every pick, with the numbers.
Newsletter
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Building a World Cup Model (And Whether It's Any Good)
I’ve spent the last few weeks building a model to predict the World Cup. Not a “who do you reckon wins it” gut take over a beer. An actual machine that takes every international team, every result ...