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Model Notes

How our forecasting models work, how they're graded, and what changes when a new AI model joins the board.

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Model Notes · July 31, 2026

Why We Retired GPT-5.6 Sol Pro From the Leaderboard

Sol Pro and Luna Pro posted near identical records on our board for two months. One costs fifty times the other. Here is the math behind the first retirement of a healthy model.

Model Notes · July 30, 2026

The Grok Fade: How One AI's Bad Overs Became Our Best Betting Strategy

Grok 4.5's over picks hit 37% for a full month. We stopped asking it to be right and started betting the other side. Here's the full graded record of the strategy.