Our NFL Suite is Live - and MLB Picks Restart today

A little bit of a late newsletter coming your way today, but there’s just very little going on in the sports world. In this post though we’ll briefly touch on the UFC card this weekend (more to come tomorrow). There’s an MLB game tonight. AND, the big news... our NFL Draft Suite is live, albeit very early.

This Weekend’s UFC

Saturday night gives us Dricus Du Plessis (23-3) against Kamaru Usman (21-4). Usman is one of the best to ever do it, and there was a stretch where picking against him felt genuinely stupid. Our model doesn’t do sentiment though, and it has Du Plessis at 77%.

That’s a big number for a fight between two guys with this much pedigree, but the model’s case is pretty simple: one of these fighters is in his prime and the other is 39. Every fight on this card got the full treatment, the house model, the Oracle, and all seven AIs on the fight card page.

We’ll post the full card rundown tomorrow, so keep an eye out for that one.

The Only Game In Town Tonight

The second half of the MLB season starts tonight, and it starts with exactly one game: Mets at Phillies, 7:10 ET. If you want live sports tonight it’s that, or there’s some MLS and Liga MX starting back too.

Here’s the thing our season simulator would like you to know about these two teams. We run the rest of the season 10,000 times every day, and the Phillies come out of it just fine: 88% to make the playoffs, 36% to win the division. The Mets? The sim gives them a 0% chance at the playoffs.

So tonight is a division game where one team is playing for October and the other is playing for pride. You can see the full picture, playoff odds and the projected World Series bracket, on the MLB simulator page. The model’s call for tonight’s game will be up on the board before first pitch, as always.

The NFL Draft Suite Is Live

Now the fun part. We’ve been building toward NFL season for weeks, and today the first big piece went live: our fantasy football suite.

Here’s what’s free, for everyone, no account needed:

The full top-200 rankings in standard, half, and PPR. These aren’t one person’s hot takes. We blend independent projection sources at the stat level (attempts, targets, yards, the actual components), anchor the whole thing to ADP and the betting markets, and rebuild it every single morning through draft season. There’s a printable cheat sheet too, for those of you who like to walk into a draft holding paper. I respect it.

There’s also a values and reaches page, which is where our board disagrees with the market. The top five on each side are free.

And for Pro users... the Draft Room is live. Right now, today, not “coming soon.” You give it your league’s exact scoring, standard, half, PPR, superflex, whatever weird house rules your league commissioner dreamed up, and it rescores the entire board from the components, live, while you draft. Values tracked as picks come off the board. Floor and ceiling on every player. It’s the tool I wanted every August and could never find, so we built it.

If you’re drafting this year, go have a look. The rankings are free forever, and if the Room saves you from one bad second-round pick, it’s paid for the season. As with everything here, the board gets graded in public when the season’s done.

More NFL is coming quickly from here: player pages, props, and weekly tools once the season starts. It’s going to be a fun fall.