predicted sports
← UFC Fight Night
Joel Alvarez
23-4 · Orthodox
vs
Joe Duffy
16-5 · Orthodox
Lightweight
Result
Joel Alvarez def.
SUB · R1 2:25
Tale of the Tape
77"
Reach
73"
33
Age
38
4.53
SLpM
2.68
54%
Str. Acc.
34%
3.03
SApM
3.78
53%
Str. Def.
54%
0.18
TD Avg.
0.96
46%
TD Def.
64%
1.10
Sub. Avg.
0.70

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Joel Alvarez
53%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Lightweight
348 fights · edge Joel Alvarez
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Joel Alvarez
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
By the Numbers
Joel Alvarez finishes 67% · finished 22% (9 fights)
When younger than opponent 100% (4-0)
As the rating favorite 83% (5-1)
With a reach advantage 78% (7-2)
Vs orthodox 75% (6-2)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.