← UFC 329
Welterweight
Base
27%
73%
Conor McGregorMax Holloway
Base makes Max Holloway a clear favorite at 73%.
Our pick: Max Holloway
Base
73%
Market (no-vig)
65%
Edge on pick
↑ +8.3pp
How it's likely to end
45%
KO/TKO
13%
Submission
42%
Decision
Finish
58%
Goes the distance
42%
Past round 2
61%
Exp. rounds
3.4
Finish probability by round
R1
24%
R2
15%
R3
9%
R4
6%
R5
4%
From a per-round hazard model. Method/round props are an under-served market we are building toward.
Tale of the Tape
74"
Reach
69"
37
Age
34
5.32
SLpM
6.91
49%
Str. Acc.
48%
4.66
SApM
4.61
54%
Str. Def.
58%
0.67
TD Avg.
0.23
66%
TD Def.
81%
0.10
Sub. Avg.
0.30
The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.
How fights like this tend to go
league history
League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.
62%
younger fighters win at Welterweight
362 fights · edge Max Holloway
54%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Welterweight
320 fights · edge Conor McGregor
62%
the rating favorite wins at Welterweight
325 fights · edge Max Holloway
51%
of Welterweight fights end inside the distance
362 fights
By the Numbers
Conor McGregor
finishes 0% · finished 100% (2 fights)
When older than opponent
0%
(0-2)
As the rating underdog
0%
(0-2)
Vs southpaws
0%
(0-2)
With a reach advantage
0%
(0-2)
Max Holloway
finishes 20% · finished 10% (10 fights)
As the rating favorite
100%
(4-0)
Vs southpaws
100%
(2-0)
When older than opponent
67%
(2-1)
Giving up reach
67%
(6-3)
Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.