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Middleweight
Result
Abus Magomedov def.
SUB · R1 3:25
Base called it (52% Magomedov)
The Panel
two analysts call every fight
S
Scoop
Works the sources
Pick · fight week
Abus Magomedov 70%
✓ called it
“Word is Oleksiejczuk's power won't matter once he's on his back. Abus has the size, the style, and the blueprint to get this done.”
🔒 Method call & full breakdown with Pro
V
Vega
Runs the numbers
Pick · fight week
Abus Magomedov 55%
✓ called it
“Abus Magomedov's grappling edge and Michal's porous defense will see the Dagestani grind out a win.”
🔒 Method call & full breakdown with ProFree pick & take; the method call and full writeup are Pro. Each analyst also calls every fight ~1 week out.
How it's likely to end
🔒 KO / submission / decision & round breakdown with Pro
Tale of the Tape
78"
Reach
74"
35
Age
31
3.06
SLpM
5.73
48%
Str. Acc.
52%
3.34
SApM
4.45
56%
Str. Def.
60%
2.50
TD Avg.
0.99
100%
TD Def.
52%
0.60
Sub. Avg.
0.00
The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.
How fights like this tend to go
league history
League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.
61%
younger fighters win at Middleweight
379 fights · edge Michal Oleksiejczuk
52%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Middleweight
341 fights · edge Abus Magomedov
60%
the rating favorite wins at Middleweight
343 fights · edge Abus Magomedov
58%
of Middleweight fights end inside the distance
379 fights
By the Numbers
Abus Magomedov
finishes 38% · finished 25% (8 fights)
As the rating favorite
100%
(2-0)
Vs orthodox
67%
(4-2)
When older than opponent
63%
(5-3)
With a reach advantage
63%
(5-3)
Michal Oleksiejczuk
finishes 43% · finished 29% (14 fights)
As the rating favorite
75%
(6-2)
In the small (APEX) cage
75%
(3-1)
Vs southpaws
67%
(2-1)
Giving up reach
60%
(6-4)
Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.