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Rafael Fiziev
14-5 · Switch
vs
Manuel Torres
17-4 · Switch
Lightweight
Result
Rafael Fiziev def.
KO/TKO · R2 0:15
Base missed this one (48% Fiziev)

The Panel

two analysts call every fight
S Scoop Works the sources
Pick · fight week
Rafael Fiziev 60%
✓ called it

“Word is Torres's travel from Mexico was a monster and the cut is rough. Fiziev is back home for a reason — watch for 'Ataman' to get his mojo back.”

Method KO/TKO 70%

This is all about whether Fiziev's chin holds up against a first-round killer. Torres is pure offense, but my sources say the long trip to Baku has taken a toll. Fiziev is the more technical man, and fighting at home is a huge boost. Look for Fiziev to weather the early blitz, use his world-class body kicks to sap Torres's gas tank, and catch him with a fight-ending counter as the Mexican brawler gets desperate in the second round.

V Vega Runs the numbers
Pick · fight week
Manuel Torres 65%
✗ missed

“Torres' blistering 7.29 SLpM and 100% finish rate in UFC wins will overwhelm Fiziev's fading durability.”

Method KO/TKO 70%

Torres holds a massive +2.58 SLpM striking differential and lands 7.29 significant strikes per minute at 59% accuracy, overwhelming Fiziev's 49% defense. Fiziev has been finished in 3 of his last 5 fights and absorbs 4.84 SApM, making him vulnerable to Torres' explosive power and 100% UFC finish rate. The model's 0.48 KO/TKO probability aligns with Torres' aggressive style and Fiziev's recent KO losses, likely ending inside 3.2 rounds.

Free pick & take; the method call and full writeup are Pro. Each analyst also calls every fight ~1 week out.

How it's likely to end
48%
KO/TKO
14%
Submission
38%
Decision
Finish
62%
Goes the distance
38%
Past round 2
58%
Exp. rounds
3.2
Finish probability by round
R1
26%
R2
15%
R3
10%
R4
6%
R5
4%

From a per-round hazard model. Method/round props are an under-served market we are building toward.

Tale of the Tape
71"
Reach
73"
33
Age
31
4.71
SLpM
6.57
52%
Str. Acc.
56%
4.81
SApM
4.24
50%
Str. Def.
50%
1.00
TD Avg.
1.32
90%
TD Def.
76%
0.00
Sub. Avg.
0.70

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Manuel Torres
53%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Lightweight
348 fights · edge Manuel Torres
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Rafael Fiziev
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
By the Numbers
Rafael Fiziev finishes 36% · finished 18% (11 fights)
Giving up reach 80% (4-1)
When older than opponent 75% (3-1)
As the rating favorite 67% (4-2)
In 5-round fights 67% (2-1)
Manuel Torres finishes 71% · finished 29% (7 fights)
As the rating underdog 100% (2-0)
In the small (APEX) cage 100% (2-0)
When younger than opponent 83% (5-1)
With a reach advantage 80% (4-1)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.