← UFC 323
Lightweight
Result
Chris Duncan def.
SUB · R1 2:30
Tale of the Tape
71"
Reach
73"
33
Age
31
4.83
SLpM
6.53
45%
Str. Acc.
55%
4.57
SApM
3.45
50%
Str. Def.
43%
2.92
TD Avg.
3.31
55%
TD Def.
72%
0.60
Sub. Avg.
2.10
The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.
How fights like this tend to go
league history
League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.
61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Terrance McKinney
53%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Lightweight
348 fights · edge Terrance McKinney
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Chris Duncan
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
By the Numbers
Chris Duncan
finishes 38% · finished 25% (8 fights)
With a reach advantage
100%
(2-0)
When older than opponent
80%
(4-1)
Vs orthodox
80%
(4-1)
As the rating favorite
75%
(3-1)
Terrance McKinney
finishes 62% · finished 38% (13 fights)
Giving up reach
100%
(2-0)
Vs orthodox
70%
(7-3)
When younger than opponent
67%
(6-3)
In the small (APEX) cage
67%
(4-2)
Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.