predicted sports
← UFC Fight Night
Joel Alvarez
23-4 · Orthodox
vs
Elves Brener
16-6 · Orthodox
Lightweight
Result
Joel Alvarez def.
KO/TKO · R3 3:36
Tale of the Tape
77"
Reach
72"
33
Age
28
4.53
SLpM
4.76
54%
Str. Acc.
47%
3.03
SApM
5.86
53%
Str. Def.
50%
0.18
TD Avg.
0.99
46%
TD Def.
76%
1.10
Sub. Avg.
0.00

The longer bar / bold number is the edge on that row.

How fights like this tend to go
league history

League-wide rates for this matchup's profile — who they point to here is flagged. Descriptive, not a prediction.

61%
younger fighters win at Lightweight
397 fights · edge Elves Brener
53%
the longer-reach fighter wins at Lightweight
348 fights · edge Joel Alvarez
58%
the rating favorite wins at Lightweight
354 fights · edge Joel Alvarez
56%
of Lightweight fights end inside the distance
397 fights
By the Numbers
Joel Alvarez finishes 67% · finished 22% (9 fights)
When younger than opponent 100% (4-0)
As the rating favorite 83% (5-1)
With a reach advantage 78% (7-2)
Vs orthodox 75% (6-2)
Elves Brener finishes 33% · finished 17% (6 fights)
As the rating favorite 67% (2-1)
When younger than opponent 60% (3-2)
Vs orthodox 50% (3-3)
With a reach advantage 50% (1-1)

Win rate by context, from the fight log. Splits with too few fights are hidden.