Our AI's First Pick of the Day, UFC Fight Night, and the World Cup Final

We’ve started a new series on socials, a daily pick a day. If you’re not following along on social media we’ll post every pick here on the newsletter too.

A quick note though to say that our socials pick differs from our “Edge” pick that can be found in the /pro tab for our premium users. Similar, yes, but the goal will always be to provide the most actionable advice to our premium subscribers.

That said, here’s today’s pick:

Padres moneyline, on the road at Kansas City. The whole pick lives on the mound. Michael King takes the ball for San Diego and we project him to give up 3.41 runs, against 4.56 for Seth Lugo on the other side. That’s better than a full run of separation between the two starters, and it’s enough to make our model a 57 percent favorite in a road game. At a price of 1.89 the number says there’s value in it. This is the first pick in the series with the model actually behind it. Day one was Necaxa and it cashed, so we’re 1-0 and up 0.87 units. Every one of these gets graded in public, win or lose.

UFC Fans - Usman vs Du Plessis

We have a full breakdown of the Usman vs Du Plessis main card that was posted yesterday. Check it out here.

Our AIs have fired, and all their predictions are locked in. We’ll largely be looking to see if Claude Sonnet 5 can match the crazy streak it had last week where it picked winner + method on 10/14 fights. A $100 bettor on that card would have made out with over $1200 following the AI suggestions.

The Oracle has also had an upgrade for UFC heading into tomorrow with more data, more history, and hopefully better predictions.

Kimi K3

We’ve added a new model to our UFC / MLB tracking, Kimi K3.

Kimi K3 is Kimi’s most capable flagship model to date, with 2.8 trillion parameters. It is built on Kimi Delta Attention (KDA), a hybrid linear attention mechanism, and Attention Residuals, with native visual understanding and a 1M-token context window. It is the world’s first open-source model in the 3-trillion-parameter class, designed for frontier intelligence scenarios including long-horizon coding, knowledge work, and reasoning.

So far, it’s off to a good start at 1-0 with its pick of the Red Sox earlier today. It did miss on the total in that game though, but just barely. You can see where it sits against the rest of the field on the leaderboard.

The Weekend Ahead

The Padres are just today. We’re back to a full board of MLB picks all weekend, and as always you can follow every one as it settles on the accuracy page.

Then Sunday is the big one. The World Cup final is set: Argentina vs Spain, Messi going for back-to-back. We ran the match ten thousand times, and our model came out with Spain as the slimmest of favorites, right around 51 percent. That’s a lonely place to be, because every major AI we track is riding Messi and Argentina. Our model is the one voice in the room taking Spain. The full call, and the model-versus-AI showdown that comes with it, drops Sunday morning. You can see the World Cup model for yourself before then.

One we’re staying away from is England vs France in the third-place game. With the trophy already off the table there just isn’t much real incentive on the pitch, and we’d rather not stake a pick on a match nobody is fully trying to win.

Follow the daily pick on socials and it’ll always land right here too. See you Sunday for the final.